Tag Archives: population growth

Part 2 – Racing Towards the Cliff Edge

In my previous blog I outlined that the world is racing towards the loss of civilization, not through Climate Change (though that is a factor) but due to 2 other factors. Now I’m going to reveal what is going to cause the decay of civilization. I’m going to tell you a secret that the world doesn’t want to share with you. It’s such a secret that only handful of Sustainable Development scientists, like myself, ever have sleepless nights over.

The secret is actually well-known but poorly explained. This is why I’ve decided to do an entire course on both the ‘secret’ and the solution. I call this course: The Bigger Picture: A Glimpse into the Probable Future of Energy. You can pre-register for this today, right now, HERE.

Now I’m going to reveal a few parts of the course to whet your appetite. This is EXCLUSIVE MATERIAL. I’ve decided to include it on a video for you.

This course is going to be available in a short while, so please keep a look for it.

 

Racing Towards the Cliff Edge

BLIND MEDIA & POLITICIANS

We live in a world dominated by political masters, be they right-wing or left-wing, centre ground or populist, whom are totally blind to the greatest threat to human survival in over 460 years, and I’m not talking about Climate Change. In fact if you may be totally unaware of this threat, because no-one wants to tell you the truth of what will happen in 50 to 100 years, or the path towards what is about to happen. They hide what I call the LTT or ‘Long-term-Triggers’. We are racing towards the cliff edge of that particular LTT.

THE SILENCE & THE NOISE

The reasoning behind the silence of the media and their political masters (for all media is controlled by someone, even the BBC) is that although short-term bad news sells, and even Climate Change bad news sells, the horrible truth about the future doesn’t sell. Instead you are told about a future full of Artificial Intelligence by non-numerate journalists who wouldn’t know Bayes or his theorem if it turned into alien out of the movie Monsters! You are told about how AI might be dangerous by Elon Musk. You are convinced that the future will have the perfect market place due to the growth of the internet. You are told that we’ll all have robots soon. Children are being taught using ipads, computers and robots. Soon we’ll be going regularly into outer space, and even flying will be quicker by utilising the vacuum of space to wisk us to far off shores in a few hours. There will be space tourism. Even war will be drone based, so that the pilots who are already remote from the battlefield can annihilate their enemies without losing sleep or their lives. Soon even that control might end up being taken over by AI pilots who don’t see the morality, just the mission. In any case, when did the morality ever matter to the elites who run our governments. It’s never been a concern that we live inside a room filled with nuclear dynamite, with two people we’ve probably never ever met, nor will ever meet, with their fingers on the buttons of Mutually Assured Destruction, or to use it’s Cold War term: MAD. Nuclear accidents and poor nuclear weapon security almost guarantees that one day a terror group might get hold of fissile material.  The media want to frighten you with the worse short-term case they can offer, whilst they hide the LTT (Long-term-Triggers).

FOCUSING ON THE TRIVIAL

The media like to focus on things that they feel their puerile little non-numerate intellects can handle: sleaze – did Donald Trump have sexual relations outside of marriage with hookers, a pornstar and a model? scandal – did the Russians rig the US election using Facebook? Finally, is the economy, job creation and automobile sales moving up or down, and is this affecting our mortgages? (Mortgages – deadly agreements to allow banks to re-possess your liability if you cannot pay. I’ve never had one. If you cannot afford it, don’t buy it unless it is an asset.) Not one of them wants to tell you that not far off over the horizon of your amazingly short life span, and for that matter the even shorter lifespan of your children and grandchildren there’s a LTT that their masters, the politicians are failing to recognise, and thus failing to plan for – well kind of. Again I’m not talking about Climate Change.

SECRETS

In part 2 of my blog I’m going to tell you a secret that the world doesn’t want to share with you. It’s such a secret that only handful of Sustainable Development scientists like myself ever have sleepless nights over. I don’t know why, but I do. I shouldn’t. After all I’m not much of a philanthropist – a lover of humanity. If anything I’m a secret Misanthropist, but don’t tell anyone, all you will spoil my image, and we cannot have that can we? Well Donald Trump can, as it seems it doesn’t matter either way to him!  Till next time…

 

Every rate rise has a doubling time

When they teach you maths at school they want to complicate matters. That’s why most people leave school completely upended by it all. However, if they are like me, they go away, they learn it themselves, then they apply it in the real world. That way the learner actually gets to learn something useful. Today I’m going to show you one of the most useful parts of maths you’ll ever need to know. It’s how to quickly calculate how long it takes to double any given percentage without having to use a spreadsheet.

Now I’m not going to explain to you how mathematicians derived this method, because that would be confusing. If you want that, go to a YouTube channel that explains it. The method is dead simple.

If someone tells you that your money will grow at 7% per year if you invest in something, how long will it take to double your money? It’s really easy to calculate:

You just use the Rule of 70. Simply divide 70 by the growth (or fall) rate. Using the above example divide 70 by 7 which gives 10 years. That’s all you need to do. Let’s look at few more examples:

Imagine I offer you an investment at a rate of 3.5% per year. How long will it take to double my investment? 70 divided by 3.5 = 20 years.

Let’s look at your bank account. What percentage rate are they paying you? Do you know? Probably it’s quite low, because since the 2007/8 economic crash, banks have been offering little interest, and making people in debt pay a lot of interest, or a lot more than they used to do!

One US bank is paying 0.05% per year. That means your money doubles 70 divided by 0.05 which equals 1400 years! Yes, invest a dollar today and it’s two dollars in 1400 years! However, borrow money on a credit card and they want to charge you 22.99% which means your payments are doubling every 3.045 years. (70/22.99).

You can now apply this not only to your money, but to how you view the news. Think about any rate per year given as a percentage, and you can now calculate the doubling time. You can apply this method to any form of growth or decline that is pretty consistent over time. For example, electricity prices have on average risen by 7% a year since 1950 in the USA. (My figure looks at the overall averages of the nominal prices – i.e. not accounting for inflation.) You can also apply it to population growth. If your areas population is growing at 1% per year, then it will take 70 years for your community to require twice the amount of housing, schools, hospitals and sewerage capabilities. A human lifetime is nothing in great scheme of things.

Next time, I’ll teach you about growth factors…See you then.