Tag Archives: gas

Part 2 – Racing Towards the Cliff Edge

In my previous blog I outlined that the world is racing towards the loss of civilization, not through Climate Change (though that is a factor) but due to 2 other factors. Now I’m going to reveal what is going to cause the decay of civilization. I’m going to tell you a secret that the world doesn’t want to share with you. It’s such a secret that only handful of Sustainable Development scientists, like myself, ever have sleepless nights over.

The secret is actually well-known but poorly explained. This is why I’ve decided to do an entire course on both the ‘secret’ and the solution. I call this course: The Bigger Picture: A Glimpse into the Probable Future of Energy. You can pre-register for this today, right now, HERE.

Now I’m going to reveal a few parts of the course to whet your appetite. This is EXCLUSIVE MATERIAL. I’ve decided to include it on a video for you.

This course is going to be available in a short while, so please keep a look for it.

 

Racing Towards the Cliff Edge

BLIND MEDIA & POLITICIANS

We live in a world dominated by political masters, be they right-wing or left-wing, centre ground or populist, whom are totally blind to the greatest threat to human survival in over 460 years, and I’m not talking about Climate Change. In fact if you may be totally unaware of this threat, because no-one wants to tell you the truth of what will happen in 50 to 100 years, or the path towards what is about to happen. They hide what I call the LTT or ‘Long-term-Triggers’. We are racing towards the cliff edge of that particular LTT.

THE SILENCE & THE NOISE

The reasoning behind the silence of the media and their political masters (for all media is controlled by someone, even the BBC) is that although short-term bad news sells, and even Climate Change bad news sells, the horrible truth about the future doesn’t sell. Instead you are told about a future full of Artificial Intelligence by non-numerate journalists who wouldn’t know Bayes or his theorem if it turned into alien out of the movie Monsters! You are told about how AI might be dangerous by Elon Musk. You are convinced that the future will have the perfect market place due to the growth of the internet. You are told that we’ll all have robots soon. Children are being taught using ipads, computers and robots. Soon we’ll be going regularly into outer space, and even flying will be quicker by utilising the vacuum of space to wisk us to far off shores in a few hours. There will be space tourism. Even war will be drone based, so that the pilots who are already remote from the battlefield can annihilate their enemies without losing sleep or their lives. Soon even that control might end up being taken over by AI pilots who don’t see the morality, just the mission. In any case, when did the morality ever matter to the elites who run our governments. It’s never been a concern that we live inside a room filled with nuclear dynamite, with two people we’ve probably never ever met, nor will ever meet, with their fingers on the buttons of Mutually Assured Destruction, or to use it’s Cold War term: MAD. Nuclear accidents and poor nuclear weapon security almost guarantees that one day a terror group might get hold of fissile material.  The media want to frighten you with the worse short-term case they can offer, whilst they hide the LTT (Long-term-Triggers).

FOCUSING ON THE TRIVIAL

The media like to focus on things that they feel their puerile little non-numerate intellects can handle: sleaze – did Donald Trump have sexual relations outside of marriage with hookers, a pornstar and a model? scandal – did the Russians rig the US election using Facebook? Finally, is the economy, job creation and automobile sales moving up or down, and is this affecting our mortgages? (Mortgages – deadly agreements to allow banks to re-possess your liability if you cannot pay. I’ve never had one. If you cannot afford it, don’t buy it unless it is an asset.) Not one of them wants to tell you that not far off over the horizon of your amazingly short life span, and for that matter the even shorter lifespan of your children and grandchildren there’s a LTT that their masters, the politicians are failing to recognise, and thus failing to plan for – well kind of. Again I’m not talking about Climate Change.

SECRETS

In part 2 of my blog I’m going to tell you a secret that the world doesn’t want to share with you. It’s such a secret that only handful of Sustainable Development scientists like myself ever have sleepless nights over. I don’t know why, but I do. I shouldn’t. After all I’m not much of a philanthropist – a lover of humanity. If anything I’m a secret Misanthropist, but don’t tell anyone, all you will spoil my image, and we cannot have that can we? Well Donald Trump can, as it seems it doesn’t matter either way to him!  Till next time…

 

The Syrian War, Facebook and the coming Oil Crisis – part 2

In my last blog I mentioned that the 2007 to 2008 global financial crash, which was triggered by a short-sharp, but large rise in oil prices, was probably the root cause of the Arab Spring, and thus the freedom fighters or rebel uprising in Syria. Now to part 2, where I wanted to look at a future and how a prolonged oil crisis would play out.

In my new course (yet to be released on UDEMY – watch this space) I’ve been discussing the future of energy. Our world is dominated by oil. However, Cornucopians want to spin it, oil will not be a low cost resource forever. As my course points out: oil is a finite resource, dominant in terms of its usage across the world. It is literally the primary fuel because we turn oil into food, and food into people. Three factors limit oil production and use in the future: scarcity, a lower energy return on investment and thus Net Energy, and Peak oil, because even if oil was abundant, eventually oil must peak and decline. If we are already in decline as many oil companies suggest, then that would explain much of our current political instability, marginal growth and what appears to be increasingly economic stagnation (even the politicians want to tell you all is well).

BLANK NET ENERGY CLIFF - Final Copy

Let’s now consider a world where we lower our use of oil and switch to battery technology, with limited effectiveness because oil will still be needed for the mining operations to extract the materials we take, make and throw-away (because although recycling is possible, few countries are doing it successfully, and waste is now a commodity that has its own black, corrupt economy.) Let’s just imagine a world with lots of more electric vehicles in Europe and China, and more in the America, though in America I would expect them to switch to a Synthetic fuel economy, firstly turning coal into oil fuels, then gas into oil fuels. Europe and Russia will have a problem. Keeping warm in a colder climate – one potential outcome of the loss of the Gulf Stream – will mean upgrading electricity and gas networks in the medium term. Then as gas becomes a problem, as more of it is turned in oil, we’ll need to solve that by investing either in lots of renewable energy systems or nuclear reactors. The best kind of nuclear reactors are fast-breeders.

This will no doubt be a slow, step-by-step, incremental, burst based development that will take time. The volatility of oil prices during this period may actually degrade our ability to switch from one fuel to another due to the ups and downs of the market, poor investments, poor political leadership, and perhaps increasingly hostile right-wing nationalism sprouting up wherever nations are faced with major economic problems. Populism tends to grow in nations undergoing stress.

This means our world will enter the 21st century with 3 types of energy economies:-

Firstly a limited Hydrogen Economy – mainly because the EROIE of hydrogen is a big problem – probably only dominant in South America where hydrogen Bio-Fuel will be a big player.

h2

Secondly a dominant Electric Renewable Energy Economy (with perhaps some countries using nuclear power) in some locations (like Europe).

ren2a

Thirdly a Plutonium/Synthetic Fuel Economy, mainly in the USA, Russia, Africa, India and China. These nations will be also militarily degraded by the sheer cost of using oil.

synthetic

Since ‘all history’ is the history of war, we should also face the fact that many nations simply will not adapt to change easily. Some will be thrown in to civil war. These are already happening at this stage in Africa. Others will engage in surrogate wars or full on wars it other nations to deflect public opinion and blame others.

Africa can be both the world’s saviour and its doom. Africa has vast solar resources. This makes it a potential source for a better integrated form of intelligent energy management, where renewables are used as and when required. However, Africans have tended to be too tribal, and many leaders are corrupt, even ones that show promise. It seems as if Africa is doomed to civil wars and unrest, as Islam and Christianity battle it out. Then there is the growth in foreign troops in Africa: Americans, Russians and Chinese are on the ground, protecting their corporate investments in the minerals that help run their nations economies. Will nations actually go to war over resources in the longer-term. We already see potential flashpoints even over water! What will happen when the last drops of oil reserves are up for grabs?

From these wars the more developed nations will continue to see a tide of immigrants from the poorer nations. It is already happening, and it is likely to get worse as people seek refugee status to survive the bombings and terrorism.

The most fearful thing is that Fast Breeder nuclear reactors produce weapons grade Plutonium. What happens if this material falls into the hands of terrorists? It is technically difficult to make a thermo-nuclear bomb, but a dirty bomb is not at all a problem.

Syria is a test of the United Nations, whose mandate is totally out-of-date. It’s entire structure is based upon trying to stop humans from throwing nuclear weapons at each other. Instead, it encourages rogue nations, with evil leaders, like Vladimir Putin to wage surrogate wars against the West, along with Cyberspace War, carried out openly on platforms developed by his enemies, and utilised to put people in power who hardly understand the rules of draughts (chequers) whilst Putin continues to play geo-political Chess. Time will tell what happens when we have to face the real crisis that is only 50 years away, no time at all really…

Lastly, as Sir John Glubb’s conclusions still seem to resonate, what happens when a huge gap opens up between rich and poor, and the economy fails to plug the oil gap, oil which we turn through agricultural processes into food for the masses? For 5000 years when these two facts come together there is only one outcome: civilization enters a dark age.

I will soon be publishing a course on the Future of Energy hosted on UDEMY. I will let any subscribers to this blog or others about this course when it is available. The course will hopefully open your mind to a wealth of possibilities.

New Course: The Future of Energy

We are now working on a new course about the future of energy. This course is groundbreaking. I believe there is nothing like it anywhere in the world, including universities or colleges.

The course will focus on solutions the coming oil crisis. The coming oil crisis is going to happen because oil is a non-renewable resource. It has built our civilization, but once it becomes too expensive to extract and reaches an expiration point, civilization will need to seek new solutions.

From an Oil Economy we will need to transition to a Hydrogen, Renewable, Plutonium or Synthetic Fuel Economy. Essentially our course will show why this crisis is potentially worse than Climate Change. Lectures will include:-

  • Resource Expiration & the Exponential Problem
  • Why is Oil so important?
  • Potential Terrestrial Technical Solutions to the Coming Oil Crisis
  • The Implications of failing to find a Solution
  • Beyond Earth: can we build a solution in Outer Space?
  • and a few more…

By the end of this course you will be able to talk confidently about the future of energy, armed with facts gathered from many sources over a period of 12 years of diligent research. This course will allow you to see beyond the here and now making you an authority on energy research.

This course will be available later this year.