Part 2 – Racing Towards the Cliff Edge

In my previous blog I outlined that the world is racing towards the loss of civilization, not through Climate Change (though that is a factor) but due to 2 other factors. Now I’m going to reveal what is going to cause the decay of civilization. I’m going to tell you a secret that the world doesn’t want to share with you. It’s such a secret that only handful of Sustainable Development scientists, like myself, ever have sleepless nights over.

The secret is actually well-known but poorly explained. This is why I’ve decided to do an entire course on both the ‘secret’ and the solution. I call this course: The Bigger Picture: A Glimpse into the Probable Future of Energy. You can pre-register for this today, right now, HERE.

Now I’m going to reveal a few parts of the course to whet your appetite. This is EXCLUSIVE MATERIAL. I’ve decided to include it on a video for you.

This course is going to be available in a short while, so please keep a look for it.

 

Racing Towards the Cliff Edge

BLIND MEDIA & POLITICIANS

We live in a world dominated by political masters, be they right-wing or left-wing, centre ground or populist, whom are totally blind to the greatest threat to human survival in over 460 years, and I’m not talking about Climate Change. In fact if you may be totally unaware of this threat, because no-one wants to tell you the truth of what will happen in 50 to 100 years, or the path towards what is about to happen. They hide what I call the LTT or ‘Long-term-Triggers’. We are racing towards the cliff edge of that particular LTT.

THE SILENCE & THE NOISE

The reasoning behind the silence of the media and their political masters (for all media is controlled by someone, even the BBC) is that although short-term bad news sells, and even Climate Change bad news sells, the horrible truth about the future doesn’t sell. Instead you are told about a future full of Artificial Intelligence by non-numerate journalists who wouldn’t know Bayes or his theorem if it turned into alien out of the movie Monsters! You are told about how AI might be dangerous by Elon Musk. You are convinced that the future will have the perfect market place due to the growth of the internet. You are told that we’ll all have robots soon. Children are being taught using ipads, computers and robots. Soon we’ll be going regularly into outer space, and even flying will be quicker by utilising the vacuum of space to wisk us to far off shores in a few hours. There will be space tourism. Even war will be drone based, so that the pilots who are already remote from the battlefield can annihilate their enemies without losing sleep or their lives. Soon even that control might end up being taken over by AI pilots who don’t see the morality, just the mission. In any case, when did the morality ever matter to the elites who run our governments. It’s never been a concern that we live inside a room filled with nuclear dynamite, with two people we’ve probably never ever met, nor will ever meet, with their fingers on the buttons of Mutually Assured Destruction, or to use it’s Cold War term: MAD. Nuclear accidents and poor nuclear weapon security almost guarantees that one day a terror group might get hold of fissile material.  The media want to frighten you with the worse short-term case they can offer, whilst they hide the LTT (Long-term-Triggers).

FOCUSING ON THE TRIVIAL

The media like to focus on things that they feel their puerile little non-numerate intellects can handle: sleaze – did Donald Trump have sexual relations outside of marriage with hookers, a pornstar and a model? scandal – did the Russians rig the US election using Facebook? Finally, is the economy, job creation and automobile sales moving up or down, and is this affecting our mortgages? (Mortgages – deadly agreements to allow banks to re-possess your liability if you cannot pay. I’ve never had one. If you cannot afford it, don’t buy it unless it is an asset.) Not one of them wants to tell you that not far off over the horizon of your amazingly short life span, and for that matter the even shorter lifespan of your children and grandchildren there’s a LTT that their masters, the politicians are failing to recognise, and thus failing to plan for – well kind of. Again I’m not talking about Climate Change.

SECRETS

In part 2 of my blog I’m going to tell you a secret that the world doesn’t want to share with you. It’s such a secret that only handful of Sustainable Development scientists like myself ever have sleepless nights over. I don’t know why, but I do. I shouldn’t. After all I’m not much of a philanthropist – a lover of humanity. If anything I’m a secret Misanthropist, but don’t tell anyone, all you will spoil my image, and we cannot have that can we? Well Donald Trump can, as it seems it doesn’t matter either way to him!  Till next time…

 

The Syrian War, Facebook and the coming Oil Crisis – part 2

In my last blog I mentioned that the 2007 to 2008 global financial crash, which was triggered by a short-sharp, but large rise in oil prices, was probably the root cause of the Arab Spring, and thus the freedom fighters or rebel uprising in Syria. Now to part 2, where I wanted to look at a future and how a prolonged oil crisis would play out.

In my new course (yet to be released on UDEMY – watch this space) I’ve been discussing the future of energy. Our world is dominated by oil. However, Cornucopians want to spin it, oil will not be a low cost resource forever. As my course points out: oil is a finite resource, dominant in terms of its usage across the world. It is literally the primary fuel because we turn oil into food, and food into people. Three factors limit oil production and use in the future: scarcity, a lower energy return on investment and thus Net Energy, and Peak oil, because even if oil was abundant, eventually oil must peak and decline. If we are already in decline as many oil companies suggest, then that would explain much of our current political instability, marginal growth and what appears to be increasingly economic stagnation (even the politicians want to tell you all is well).

BLANK NET ENERGY CLIFF - Final Copy

Let’s now consider a world where we lower our use of oil and switch to battery technology, with limited effectiveness because oil will still be needed for the mining operations to extract the materials we take, make and throw-away (because although recycling is possible, few countries are doing it successfully, and waste is now a commodity that has its own black, corrupt economy.) Let’s just imagine a world with lots of more electric vehicles in Europe and China, and more in the America, though in America I would expect them to switch to a Synthetic fuel economy, firstly turning coal into oil fuels, then gas into oil fuels. Europe and Russia will have a problem. Keeping warm in a colder climate – one potential outcome of the loss of the Gulf Stream – will mean upgrading electricity and gas networks in the medium term. Then as gas becomes a problem, as more of it is turned in oil, we’ll need to solve that by investing either in lots of renewable energy systems or nuclear reactors. The best kind of nuclear reactors are fast-breeders.

This will no doubt be a slow, step-by-step, incremental, burst based development that will take time. The volatility of oil prices during this period may actually degrade our ability to switch from one fuel to another due to the ups and downs of the market, poor investments, poor political leadership, and perhaps increasingly hostile right-wing nationalism sprouting up wherever nations are faced with major economic problems. Populism tends to grow in nations undergoing stress.

This means our world will enter the 21st century with 3 types of energy economies:-

Firstly a limited Hydrogen Economy – mainly because the EROIE of hydrogen is a big problem – probably only dominant in South America where hydrogen Bio-Fuel will be a big player.

h2

Secondly a dominant Electric Renewable Energy Economy (with perhaps some countries using nuclear power) in some locations (like Europe).

ren2a

Thirdly a Plutonium/Synthetic Fuel Economy, mainly in the USA, Russia, Africa, India and China. These nations will be also militarily degraded by the sheer cost of using oil.

synthetic

Since ‘all history’ is the history of war, we should also face the fact that many nations simply will not adapt to change easily. Some will be thrown in to civil war. These are already happening at this stage in Africa. Others will engage in surrogate wars or full on wars it other nations to deflect public opinion and blame others.

Africa can be both the world’s saviour and its doom. Africa has vast solar resources. This makes it a potential source for a better integrated form of intelligent energy management, where renewables are used as and when required. However, Africans have tended to be too tribal, and many leaders are corrupt, even ones that show promise. It seems as if Africa is doomed to civil wars and unrest, as Islam and Christianity battle it out. Then there is the growth in foreign troops in Africa: Americans, Russians and Chinese are on the ground, protecting their corporate investments in the minerals that help run their nations economies. Will nations actually go to war over resources in the longer-term. We already see potential flashpoints even over water! What will happen when the last drops of oil reserves are up for grabs?

From these wars the more developed nations will continue to see a tide of immigrants from the poorer nations. It is already happening, and it is likely to get worse as people seek refugee status to survive the bombings and terrorism.

The most fearful thing is that Fast Breeder nuclear reactors produce weapons grade Plutonium. What happens if this material falls into the hands of terrorists? It is technically difficult to make a thermo-nuclear bomb, but a dirty bomb is not at all a problem.

Syria is a test of the United Nations, whose mandate is totally out-of-date. It’s entire structure is based upon trying to stop humans from throwing nuclear weapons at each other. Instead, it encourages rogue nations, with evil leaders, like Vladimir Putin to wage surrogate wars against the West, along with Cyberspace War, carried out openly on platforms developed by his enemies, and utilised to put people in power who hardly understand the rules of draughts (chequers) whilst Putin continues to play geo-political Chess. Time will tell what happens when we have to face the real crisis that is only 50 years away, no time at all really…

Lastly, as Sir John Glubb’s conclusions still seem to resonate, what happens when a huge gap opens up between rich and poor, and the economy fails to plug the oil gap, oil which we turn through agricultural processes into food for the masses? For 5000 years when these two facts come together there is only one outcome: civilization enters a dark age.

I will soon be publishing a course on the Future of Energy hosted on UDEMY. I will let any subscribers to this blog or others about this course when it is available. The course will hopefully open your mind to a wealth of possibilities.

The Syrian War, Facebook and the coming Oil Crisis

As I write, US along with NATO forces are steaming into positions off Syria to inflict more damage on Assad and potentially his Russian often mercenary allies, to teach him for a second time that chemical weapons are banned. The Syrian War is a human tragedy because of just two men: Assad the leader of Syria, effectively a dictator, and Vladimir Putin, his main ally. Alone, Assad probably would have lost this war. With Russian arms he is able to inflict the worst kind of punishment against civilians who happen to be in enemy areas! We need to ask the question: what caused this to happen? What drove the rebels to rise? Why didn’t the West act to stop the bombing earlier? What is the UN doing? And why at this late stage would Assad use chemical weapons knowing that these are outlawed and will surely bring retribution?

The cause of the war is quite complicated if you read lots of journalists views. However, in the grander scheme of things the cause is simple: it was essentially part of the so called Arab Spring a movement founded by people wanting better lives being able to unite using Facebook. The influence of this particular social medium along with Twitter seems to be a general part of the creation of a perfect market place: just like Amazon, Ebay and Alibaba help to lower prices by localising and globalising competition simultaneously, Facebook and Twitter seem to democratise it.

Cambridge Analytica have shown is that Facebook is a great marketing vehicle for politicians. It is also open to being easily used to subvert election results.

In the case of the Arab Spring most of these movements happened as an indirect result of the stress caused by the financial collapse in 2007 to 2008, a banking crisis deeper than the 1929 stock market crash, which plunged banks and nations into massive debt. It was initially triggered by a oil crisis which doubled and tripled the costs of bunker fuel oil causing large companies in the US to stop imports from China and lay off workers en masse!

Now I want to look forward. If such technology evolves what happens when the entire world faces a global crisis like the loss of economically extractable oil?

That answer I will consider in my next blog.

How not to Develop the World

I have a little story to tell you. I wrote to OXFAM the other day. A simple request, that of course I didn’t need to do. I suggested that they might use their links across the developing world, with schools, community groups and other organisations to spread the word about my UDEMY course on Micro-Renewable Energy for Beginners. You’d think they’d bite my hand off. After all it would cost them nothing to do, and might help young people develop an interest and perhaps even lead to a career in the fastest growing sector in the world! Instead I get a reply saying that they won’t ‘take it forward at this time’. Take what forward? It’s not as if I’m asking them to invest in something! It costs them a few hours maybe of one workers time to gather the email addresses and forward the email.

Over the years I’ve always thought of myself as a philanthropist – a lover of humanity – a humanist – someone who cares about humans. However, increasingly I am discouraged by what I find goes for ‘human’ in places of power. OXFAM remember is the same organisation that was found out for failing to prevent abuse, including sexual abuse, of people that its workers should have been caring for! Here I’d offered them a no-cost, win-win situation, and all they had to say was, okay, we’ll forward your email with your free offer on to our contacts!

In a way I wasn’t that surprised. The fact is that for years many larger charities are just about three main things:

1. The furtherance of poor leadership in the countries they assist. After all if you are in power and an outside agency is helping you to prevent rebellion by keeping the people fed, well that means you can skim a little off the top and put your feet up. That’s what most dictators do!

2. Assisting people tends to be during crises, then hopefully the charity helps to put in place longer-term programmes. These rarely work. There’s a whole catalogue of examples! I won’t bother listing them. You can find them out yourself!

3. Many large charities are now major employers who have executives taking large salaries. No charity should ever be allowed to also be an employer. If you run a charity, it should always have volunteers only, otherwise people are paying you not the people who need it. That’s part of a wider problem with all companies that claim charity status to avoid tax and make their executives wealthy.

If you want to develop the world, you need to start at a very basic level that doesn’t help their leaders, but instead facilitates their youngsters to empower themselves through education. Even if that education is just a start. We don’t need rule men, bean counters and corporate types in charge. We need flexibility, people who really want to help and can think outside of the box.

From now on I’m a philanthropist for the masses, and a misanthropist for the leaders. Here endeth  the lesson.

 

Saving Energy by Investing

There is a theory that says if we all switch off our sockets when not in use we will conserve energy and have a large impact on CO2 emissions. This depends on everyone doing this. What actually happens is that saving energy by doing that saves very little. What we need is to make big savings.

The biggest saving is not to drive your car. That saves a lot of energy. It also keeps you fit.

Then there is an even better option. Utilise the renewable energy around you. If you want to learn about how to do that and how the various technologies work visit http://www.perimetrfilms.com

Every rate rise has a doubling time

When they teach you maths at school they want to complicate matters. That’s why most people leave school completely upended by it all. However, if they are like me, they go away, they learn it themselves, then they apply it in the real world. That way the learner actually gets to learn something useful. Today I’m going to show you one of the most useful parts of maths you’ll ever need to know. It’s how to quickly calculate how long it takes to double any given percentage without having to use a spreadsheet.

Now I’m not going to explain to you how mathematicians derived this method, because that would be confusing. If you want that, go to a YouTube channel that explains it. The method is dead simple.

If someone tells you that your money will grow at 7% per year if you invest in something, how long will it take to double your money? It’s really easy to calculate:

You just use the Rule of 70. Simply divide 70 by the growth (or fall) rate. Using the above example divide 70 by 7 which gives 10 years. That’s all you need to do. Let’s look at few more examples:

Imagine I offer you an investment at a rate of 3.5% per year. How long will it take to double my investment? 70 divided by 3.5 = 20 years.

Let’s look at your bank account. What percentage rate are they paying you? Do you know? Probably it’s quite low, because since the 2007/8 economic crash, banks have been offering little interest, and making people in debt pay a lot of interest, or a lot more than they used to do!

One US bank is paying 0.05% per year. That means your money doubles 70 divided by 0.05 which equals 1400 years! Yes, invest a dollar today and it’s two dollars in 1400 years! However, borrow money on a credit card and they want to charge you 22.99% which means your payments are doubling every 3.045 years. (70/22.99).

You can now apply this not only to your money, but to how you view the news. Think about any rate per year given as a percentage, and you can now calculate the doubling time. You can apply this method to any form of growth or decline that is pretty consistent over time. For example, electricity prices have on average risen by 7% a year since 1950 in the USA. (My figure looks at the overall averages of the nominal prices – i.e. not accounting for inflation.) You can also apply it to population growth. If your areas population is growing at 1% per year, then it will take 70 years for your community to require twice the amount of housing, schools, hospitals and sewerage capabilities. A human lifetime is nothing in great scheme of things.

Next time, I’ll teach you about growth factors…See you then.

Providers of Educational Courses

%d bloggers like this: